Have secret doubts about global warming?

I agree that there is a lot of hype about global warming that perhaps has gotten out of control, and the debate has definitely been stifled by politics. However, I still think there are some very curious and perhaps unprecedented things going on with the Earth’s climate.

Many scientists (and non-scientists who work closely with the Earth and thus pay lots of attention to unusual changes (we’re talking farmers, ranchers, fishermen, etc., not Al Gore)) have observed some big changes recently on a global level. The question seems to be not if these changes are occurring, as there are plenty of photos and data, but if they are directly related to human activity. Another issue is, what do these changes mean? What’s really going on? Are we warming on a global level, cooling, etc.?

I’d like to refer to this article from National Geographic which deals directly with that question and many others raised by skeptics.

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0409/feature1/

Wait a minute, some doubters say. Climate is notoriously fickle. A thousand years ago Europe was balmy and wine grapes grew in England; by 400 years ago the climate had turned chilly and the Thames froze repeatedly. Maybe the current warming is another natural vagary, just a passing thing?

Don’t bet on it, say climate experts. Sure, the natural rhythms of climate might explain a few of the warming signs you’ll read about in the following pages. But something else is driving the planet-wide fever.

For centuries we’ve been clearing forests and burning coal, oil, and gas, pouring carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere faster than plants and oceans can soak them up (see “The Case of the Missing Carbon,” February 2004). The atmosphere’s level of carbon dioxide now is higher than it has been for hundreds of thousands of years. “We’re now geological agents, capable of affecting the processes that determine climate,” says George Philander, a climate expert at Princeton University. In effect, we’re piling extra blankets on our planet.

Human activity almost certainly drove most of the past century’s warming, a landmark report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declared in 2001. Global temperatures are shooting up faster than at any other time in the past thousand years. And climate models show that natural forces, such as volcanic eruptions and the slow flickers of the sun, can’t explain all that warming.

Now let’s look at another issue. There are definitely skeptics in the scientific community who have reason to believe that global warming has more to do with politics than good science. Global warming is definitely a political issue, as with most science. Careers are on the line, reputations at stake, etc. It’s also very political because scientists and politicians are asking us to change our lifestyles to avoid future problems. Being such a political issue also makes me skeptical of what’s true and what’s hype.

And if there are scientists who are simply agreeing with the theories of their peers not to rock the boat, this is very bad science. Debate is critical in science, and we won’t get anywhere if no one bothers to challenge the status quo.

So what we’ve got is perhaps data without thoughtful debate. If it’s not global warming, what is it? If the planet is warming up, why? In this case, only time will tell if all the hype has any basis in reality. But once again, I think it’s important not to ignore the data that’s coming from all over the globe.

And if a little hype gets us to save a little energy and pollute less in the mean time, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. That’s a lot different than running around in a gas mask trying not to catch SARS or the bird flu.

Sorry for the rambling comment….hope it makes sense….